Techno-economic view of the future of telecommunications

Free Content Report 5G & Connected Digital Industry Connectivity Strategy May 2025 81 pages pdf

What you will learn

This whitepaper explores the transformation of the European telecommunications ecosystem amid economic challenges and rapid technological evolution. It outlines future scenarios to 2040 using strategic foresight methods, maps key players and business models, and supports decision-makers in navigating change. It is part of the RESTART research program and integrates updated ecosystem models and a strategic & technological foresight approach.

Table of Contents

1
The state of the telecommunications market
2
Research goal and methodology
3
Value network activities and archetypes
4
The methodology for identifying future scenarios
5
Identified megatrends and wild cards
6
Future scenarios of the telecommunications ecosystem
7
The qualitative assessment of scenarios
8
Next steps

Index of Graphs

1
% change Dec. 23/Dec. 22
2
% change Dec. 23/Dec. 13
3
TLC Operators’ gross revenues in Italy: fixed vs. mobile
4
EBITDA and Capex of Telecom Operators in comparison

Telecommunications and digital platform revenues compared

Evolution of the telecommunications industry’s links with other industries – Li and Malerba, 2024, Technovation

Architecture of the telecommunications ecosystem

First Layer – Backbone Infrastructure

Second layer – Network Infrastructure

Third layer – Network Function

Fourth layer – Connectivity and Enabling Technology Service

Fifth layer – Vertical Enabled Application

Layered architecture of the telecommunications ecosystem

Global Backbone Provider Business Model

National Backbone Provider Business Model

Network Infrastructure Provider Business Model

Infrastructure System Integrator Business Model

Fixed Access Network Infrastructure Wholesaler Business Model

IT Infrastructure Provider – IXP Business Model

IT Infrastructure Provider – Data Center Provider Business Model

IT Technology Provider Business Model

Network Equipment and Software Supplier Business Model

Mobile and Fixed Network Operator Business Model

Mobile Virtual Network Operator Business Model

Satellite Network Operator Business Model

Specialized ICT Service Company Business Model

Over-The-Top (OTT) Business Model

Hyperscaler Business Model

IT System Integrator Business Model

Industrial Connectivity Provider Business Model

Artificial Intelligence Provider Business Model

Telecommunications value network

Resources exchanged between ecosystem actors

Data Collection

Futures cone – Gall et al., 2022

Megatrend map

Megatrend matrix

Descriptive variables

Business Model Change – Mobile and Fixed Network Operator

Business Model Change – Hyperscaler

Summary of Scenario A

Business Model Change – Mobile and Fixed Network Operator

Summary of Scenario B

Introduction of the new Business Model – ServCo

Introduction of the new Business Model – Neutral Host

Summary of Scenario C

Introduction of the new Business Model – European Satellite Telecommunications Consortium

Introduction of the new Business Model – European Cloud and AI Consortium

Summary of Scenario D

Scenarios overview

Qualitative assessment of scenarios: ecosystem aspects

Qualitative assessment of scenarios: technological and regulatory aspects

You will know how to answer these key questions

What are the possible evolutionary scenarios for the European telecommunications sector by 2040?
How are new technologies (e.g., 5G, Edge-Cloud, AI) reshaping business models and the Telco ecosystem?
Who are the main players in the ecosystem, and how do they interact within the value network?

The methodology used in this Report

The whitepaper adopts a two-phase methodology: analysis of the current state (AS-IS) and development of future scenarios (TO-BE). In the AS-IS phase, the team mapped the telecommunications ecosystem by identifying business models and the activities of key players. The analysis relied on theoretical models of business model, value network, and ecosystem, validated through over 40 secondary sources and semi-structured interviews with industry experts. In the TO-BE phase, a strategic foresight methodology was applied, including the analysis of technological trends, megatrends, and change drivers.

Authors